Balancing Growth and the Environment: A Plan for Resilient Development

Bellingham faces a dual challenge over the next two decades: accommodate significant population and housing growth while preserving the environment and building climate resilience. The city’s attractive quality of life and natural beauty continue to draw new residents, yet unchecked growth could threaten local ecosystems and exacerbate the housing affordability​ crisis. In this article we offer ideas for how Bellingham can balance population growth and the need for more housing with environmental protection and climate adaptation, using insights and building on lessons from other cities.

Bellingham’s Growth and Challenges

Population Growth and Housing Demand

Bellingham’s population has nearly doubled since 1980, reaching an estimated 97,270 residents in 2024​ and the wider Bellingham area (the city plus its urban growth area) had about 105,500 people in 2023. Analysts estimate there to be an increase of 16,000 to 36,000 new residents by 2045. Medium-range forecasts put the population around 129,600 – about a 23% increase from 2023​, but because of the desirability of its location and its proximity between two global cities, many expect the actual population numbers to fall between the medium and high-range forecasts. Even still, planning for the baseline or medium-range population estimates spotlights the need for thousands of new homes. If average household sizes hold near 2.2 people, accommodating 24,000 new residents will require 10,000–11,000 additional housing units by 2045. To complicate matters, Bellingham is in the midst of a housing shortage. Bellingham has permitted about 750 housing units per year over the past decade but to keep pace with population growth and to improve vacancy rates, the city needs approximately 890 new homes per year. A healthy rental vacancy rate is around 5–7%, Bellingham’s rental vacancy is about 2.5% and its homeowner vacancy is about 1%. The lack of housing supply has resulted in a housing affordability and homelessness crisis and has pushed working-class people to find more affordable housing outside of Bellingham in surrounding cities like Lynden and Ferndale, as well as in unincorporated areas of Whatcom County which saw a 19% increase in growth over the past decade.

By the end of 2024 the median sale price of a home in Bellingham was reported to be $765,000. Home prices and rents have climbed beyond what most local workers can afford. Without intervention, continued population growth will worsen the affordability gap and increase displacement of working-class residents highlighting the urgency for proactive housing policy.

The housing built today must not only be quantity sufficient, but also affordable and appropriate for Bellingham’s workforce. Ensuring a supply of workforce housing for service workers, young families and those with low-to-moderate incomes should be a central goal for the 2045 planning horizon. Meeting future demand will require scaling these efforts using public-private partnerships alongside land-use changes to allow more housing.

Environmental and Climate Considerations

One of the challenges to growth is Bellingham’s unique geography. From the Salish Sea to the Chuckanut mountains to the rivers, lakes and wetlands, the natural environment is integral to its identity and ecological health. Accounting for local biodiversity, water quality, and climate vulnerability are essential considerations when planning for population growth. Key environmental factors include:

●      Habitat and Biodiversity Conservation: The city contains critical ecosystems such as coastal wetlands, riparian corridors (e.g. Whatcom Creek), and urban forests that support wildlife. Bellingham boasts about 40% tree canopy cover citywide (over 7,200 acres of urban forest) and has set a goal to maintain that percentage even as it grows​. Protecting mature trees and greenspaces is vital for habitat, recreation, and mitigating urban heat. Bellingham’s strategy to date has been to focus new development in compact urban villages and infill areas, reducing the need to clear forests.

●      Water Quality – Lake Whatcom: Lake Whatcom is Bellingham’s primary drinking water reservoir and a biodiversity hotspot. Development around the lake can increase polluted runoff and algal blooms, threatening water quality. To counter this, the City and County launched a land acquisition program in 2001 to preserve watershed lands in their natural forested state. This program, funded by watershed protection fees, has acquired over 2,800 acres in the Lake Whatcom watershed (plus conservation easements on another 164 acres) as of 2024​. In early 2025, Bellingham made its largest purchase yet – 754 acres of forestland – to permanently protect it from logging or residential development​. Keeping these lands forested helps filter rainwater and maintain stream flows, safeguarding both clean drinking water and wildlife habitat​. These efforts illustrate how growth management directly supports ecosystem health.

●      Climate Change Impacts: The Pacific Northwest is already experiencing the effects of climate change, and Bellingham must prepare for future impacts. The City’s climate assessments anticipate more extreme weather in coming years: higher temperatures and more frequent heat waves (like the 2021 heat dome), increased winter rainfall and flooding (as seen in November 2021), reduced mountain snowpack, more intense summer droughts and wildfire smoke, and about 1.5–2 feet of sea level rise by 2100​.​Low-lying coastal neighborhoods and Port of Bellingham facilities face rising sea level and coastal storm surge risks. Meanwhile, heavier downpours could strain stormwater systems and cause urban flooding, and warmer, drier summers elevate wildfire risk.

●      Sustainability and Emissions: As a city committed to climate action, Bellingham aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependency on fossil fuels. Land use plays a role – sprawl increases car travel and emissions, whereas compact, mixed-use development supports transit, biking, and walking. The city’s Climate Action Plan emphasizes “protect habitat and promote high-density development” as a key strategy, underscoring that concentrating growth inward is both an environmental and social good​.

Reconfiguring the City’s Urban Growth Areas to include more buildable land while promoting the development of housing affordable to working-class residents can help reduce emissions and limit sprawl in unincorporated, rural areas of the county where housing is more affordable but the commute to Bellingham for recreation and work is farther.

●      Environmental justice is an element within the soon-to-be-released Environmental Impact Statement. The city has recognized that resilience and equity must go hand in hand: vulnerable groups (seniors, low-income, unhoused) often suffer most in disasters. Bellingham’s working-class and marginalized communities are more likely to live in older, energy-inefficient housing and have fewer resources to adapt to climate impacts. Equitable planning means improving housing quality (energy efficiency, insulation) and ensuring all neighborhoods have access to grocery stores and necessary services, transit, and parks. Supporting programs to retrofit homes and planting trees in lower-canopy areas are ways the city can boost climate resilience for vulnerable residents​.

Socioeconomic and Employment Considerations

Balancing growth between housing needs and the environment also means expanding economic opportunity as the population increases. The employment base in Bellingham includes education (Western Washington University), healthcare, manufacturing, port/marine trades, and a growing tech and remote-work sector. Increasing the housing supply can attract more living-wage jobs so people can afford to both reside and work within the city. The Whatcom County 2045 projections anticipate adding on the order of 10,000–23,000 new jobs in the Bellingham area by 2045 (depending on growth scenario)​.

Locating employment opportunities near housing and/or transit is critical to reduce future commuter traffic and prevent an increase in emissions. Many peer cities have found success by integrating land use and economic development planning. This can involve zoning for mixed-use districts, incentivizing employers to locate in town centers, and workforce training programs to ensure local residents benefit from new jobs. Policies that support small businesses and light manufacturing within city limits will reduce the need for workers to commute long distances. Additionally, ensuring reliable public transit and continuing to invest in bike lane infrastructure that spans to major employment sites will help working-class commuters reduce their dependence on vehicles while making alternative transportation more convenient.

Balancing the need for housing with economic opportunities and environmental preservation is a challenge that elected officials, staff and the community are invested in solving. Exploring how other cities have tackled similar challenges could potentially help Bellingham achieve a more sustainable future.

Case Studies of Sustainable Urban Growth

Every city has its unique set of challenges, making it useful to examine those with similar issues as Bellingham to learn more about the tools and policies they’ve implemented to address population growth, environmental protection and housing supply. The following case studies – one American and one European – highlight useful measures that could be adapted and integrated into Bellingham’s community.

Case Study 1: Portland, Oregon – Growth Management and Green Infrastructure

Portland is known for its environmental sustainability and its focus on urban livability. Since the 1970s, the Portland metro area has enforced an Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) to guide growth and preserve natural resources. However, the Urban Growth Boundary is not static, it changes to accommodate Urban Reserves when there is a need for buildable land. Land outside the UGB can be undesignated land for future Urban Reserves or it can be designated as a Rural Reserve and preserved for farms and forests or for natural features like wetlands, flood plains and rivers.

With a history of robust infill development, the city invested heavily in public transit (light rail, streetcars, and buses) and bicycle infrastructure, earning a reputation for transit-oriented development (TOD). Dense mixed-use neighborhoods have grown along transit lines, allowing more residents to live near jobs, shops, and services without needing a car. This has reduced vehicle miles traveled and associated carbon emissions. One success is the Pearl District, a former warehouse area redeveloped into a high-density neighborhood with parks and affordable loft housing, all served by Portland’s streetcar.

In the 2010s, the city experienced an influx of population growth coupled with a housing shortage that created an affordability and homelessness crisis. In 2015 Portland declared a housing emergency. In response to the severe housing crisis, the state of Oregon passed legislation (House Bill 2001 in 2019) effectively ending exclusive single-family zoning in cities, requiring local codes to allow duplexes, ADUs, and triplexes in traditional single-family neighborhoods. In 2021 Portland adopted the Residential Infill Project (RIP) to accelerate the development of middle housing in single-family neighborhoods.

In just a few years the project has resulted in the development of more diverse and affordable housing in Portland’s single-family neighborhoods. In fact, today middle housing is the most prominent housing type being built in traditional neighborhoods and it is resulting in affordable homeownership opportunities for new buyers.

Green infrastructure is another pillar of Portland’s approach. Rather than relying only on pipes and concrete, the city pioneered “green streets” and natural stormwater systems to adapt to wetter winters. There are now over 1,300 bioswale installations in Portland’s streets, which collectively manage tens of millions of gallons of runoff each year by absorbing water through rain gardens instead of letting it flood sewers​. These bioswales and vegetated curb extensions not only reduce flood risk and water pollution, but also add greenery to neighborhoods, supporting biodiversity (pollinators, birds) and cooling the urban environment. Portland also requires new large buildings to incorporate eco-roofs or green roofs in certain districts, further managing stormwater and providing insulation.

While Portland is still under a housing emergency that has been extended until 2028 and it continues to face affordability issues, the city is now focusing on streamlining permitting and investing public funds into affordable housing (e.g., housing bond measures) to complement its land use framework​. Bellingham can consider implementing proactive housing production with community investment in infrastructure and continually assess its Urban Growth Areas to improve land supply while sufficiently containing sprawl.

In summary, Portland demonstrates the power of integrated planning – coordinating land conservation, transportation, and housing policy – to achieve a greener city.

Case Study 2: Freiburg, Germany – Integrated Eco-Planning and Affordable Housing

Freiburg, a mid-sized city in southern Germany (population ~230,000), is widely recognized as one of Europe’s most sustainable cities. Over the past 30 years, Freiburg pursued an integrated planning approach that simultaneously tackled land use, energy, mobility, and social inclusion. The result is a compact, “car-lite” city that offers a high quality of life, extensive green space, and housing for a range of incomes.

One of Freiburg’s hallmark achievements is the development of two green neighborhoods – Vauban and Rieselfeld built on former brownfield sites that were Nazi military bases. Together, these urban districts house over 17,500 people in mixed-income communities who are served by excellent public transit​. The neighborhoods were transformed from the ground up, built to high environmental standards with homes that feature solar panels, greywater recycling, and energy-efficient design (Vauban even has a “Solar Settlement” of positive-energy houses). Vauban is famous for being nearly car-free, with parking relegated to peripheral garages and streets designed for play and community interaction​. There are only 17 cars per 100 people and the streets favor pedestrians as everyone shares the same right-of-way: children, cyclists and cars — all expected to pay attention and go the same speed (3-4 miles per hour). The neighborhoods have plenty of parks, community gardens, and playgrounds woven into the unique urban fabric.

The city’s land use plan follows a “five-fingers” concept, preserving green corridors that extend from the surrounding Black Forest into the city, separating urbanized areas and providing ecological connectivity​. By concentrating growth in specific zones (like Vauban) and protecting green wedges, Freiburg achieved growth without sacrificing biodiversity – its residents enjoy over 1482 acres of parks and numerous nature reserves within city limits​.

In terms of climate resilience, Freiburg was ahead of the curve. The city set aggressive targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction (“Green City” initiatives) and implemented practical measures like green roofs on public and private buildings to absorb rainwater and moderate building temperatures​. Many of Vauban’s flat rooftops are vegetated, and rainwater is captured and reused on-site. These nature-based solutions reduce flood risk and help the city adapt to heavier rainfall patterns. Freiburg also decided in the 1960s to retain and expand its tram network (when many German cities were removing trams), making it the spine of urban development​. By 2020, most Freiburg residents lived within a short walk of a tram stop, and the city’s transit usage and bike mode share are among the highest in Germany. Fewer cars on the road mean lower air pollution and greenhouse emissions, as well as safer, more cohesive neighborhoods.

Freiburg’s approach is guided by several key policies and plans. The city has a dedicated Department for Affordable Housing which developed a master plan called “Affordable Housing 2030.” This plan explicitly links housing development with sustainability goals, calling for efficient land use through higher-density projects while retaining quality green spaces​. In practice, Freiburg uses tools like land readjustment and public land banking to ensure new housing projects include open space and community facilities.

From the beginning, a focus on strong social structures was equally important. Freiburg involved citizens in planning decisions through extensive participation processes​. This helped ensure the new districts included affordable housing (some co-operative housing and subsidized units), schools, civic centers, and shops, not just expensive eco-homes. The outcome has been neighborhoods where low-carbon living is easy and appealing, and where a diverse mix of residents have put down roots.

Importantly, Freiburg managed to advance social equity alongside its green agenda. The city’s municipal housing company (FSB) not only builds affordable units but does so to passive house energy standards, proving that efficiency and affordability can go hand in hand​. FSB has even built the world’s first high-rise meeting the strict Passive House criteria in Freiburg, providing low-income tenants with extremely low utility costs.​

In Vauban, about 40% of the housing was realized through co-operative building groups (Baugruppen) – families pooling resources to build multi-family homes – which kept prices lower and fostered a sense of community. This model could inform community-led housing efforts in Bellingham.

While smaller and inherently different than Bellingham, key takeaways from Freiburg include the value of long-term planning continuity and community engagement. Freiburg consistently applied its sustainable development vision for decades, proving that compact growth and environmental stewardship reinforce each other. The city’s experience shows that it is possible to build densely and beautifully, with solar-powered homes, abundant green space, and vibrant street life coexisting. Freiburg demonstrates the effectiveness of combining multiple strategies – transit-oriented development, strict energy codes, participatory planning, and inclusion of affordable housing – to create a truly integrated approach.

Urban Planning Tools and Strategies for Resilience

Using takeaways from the case studies put in context for Bellingham’s needs, this section considers planning tools and frameworks that may help harmonize housing growth with environmental and climate goals while supporting resilience and affordability, especially for working-class residents.

1. Growth Management and Zoning Reform

Urban Growth Areas (UGA): Like Portland’s UGB, Bellingham has an UGA that is designed to prevent sprawl by concentrating growth in urban areas to protect agricultural land and critical habitats while encouraging more efficient land use in the city. Bellingham has annexed portions of its UGA over time (22 annexations since 1995, adding 3,300 acres) to accommodate growth in a phased way​. During its 2045 planning, Bellingham should identify and remove areas that cannot support future growth as six of the fifteen areas in its UGA are at capacity and/or have residents who do not wish to be part of Bellingham. Replacing these areas with contiguous buildable land that can support 20 years of new population growth will prevent sprawl. Future annexations should prioritize areas that will cause the least environmental impact and share a community vision to adopt elements from Freiburg's study to produce new housing and mixed-use development using sustainable building practices and green infrastructure to increase energy-efficiency, minimize carbon emissions and create or preserve greenspace.

Upzoning and Missing Middle Housing: Like Portland, to absorb growth within its existing urban footprint, Bellingham has upzoned single-family neighborhoods to allow more “missing middle” housing options like duplexes, triplexes, cottage clusters, and accessory dwelling units (ADUs). Removing single-family zoning enables gentle densification. Increasing housing supply and choices in these established areas will help lower costs as we’re seeing in Portland’s case that missing middle housing tends to be more affordable to first-time buyers than large new single-family homes. Bellingham can encourage small apartment buildings or courtyard complexes that provide new units without huge land consumption to be built near transit and employment hubs (e.g. around WWU and along transit corridors like Meridian and Northwest Ave.). Zoning reform is a low-cost, high-impact strategy to let the private market create more housing accessible to middle-income families and essential workers (teachers, nurses, tradespeople) who aren’t able to afford large single-family homes.

Updating zoning can also create opportunities to incentivize affordable units. Bellingham currently offers a Multi-family Tax Exemption (MFTE) program that abates property taxes for developments including below-market units. After a 2024 review of this program’s effectiveness, the city plans to improve the 12-year program to increase affordable housing production​. This could mean, for instance, extending the tax break term or allowing greater density for projects that include a certain percentage of units affordable to, 80% of area median income. The goal is to integrate affordable housing throughout the city, rather than segregating low-income housing, thus promoting mixed-income neighborhoods and reducing commuting for lower-wage workers.

2. Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) and Mobility

Compact, Transit-Oriented Growth: Concentrating growth in transit-served areas is a win-win for housing and climate. Bellingham’s Urban Village strategy already identifies core areas (Downtown, Fairhaven, Barkley, Samish Way, etc.) for higher-density, mixed-use development. These urban villages are near transit routes, bike infrastructure, and services to help residents meet daily needs with fewer or shorter car trips. Since 2006, about 3,000 housing units (roughly 40% of new housing) have been built in Bellingham’s urban villages. The city has upzoned these areas and is working to ensure they have the transit capacity, walkability, and amenities (parks, schools, shops) to support more residents. To encourage more growth, increasing building height limits downtown or along key corridors (while respecting historic character) could help produce mid-rise workforce housing near job centers.

Enhanced Public Transit: A robust transit network underpins TOD. Bellingham’s Whatcom Transportation Authority (WTA) already provides quality bus service, including high-frequency routes linking downtown, WWU, and outlying areas. To further reduce car dependence as the population grows, Bellingham can work with WTA to implement Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) or “rapid bus” corridors, with features like dedicated lanes or signal priority on busy routes (e.g., along Guide Meridian or Lakeway Drive). Reliable, speedy transit from residential areas to employment hubs (e.g., Irongate or the airport/industrial area near Cordata) will be crucial for providing commuters an alternative to driving. Expanding evening and weekend service and improving first/last-mile connections (through biking infrastructure or micro-transit in lower-density areas) can make transit more convenient for all. The city can also require new large developments to include transit facilities (bus pull-outs, shelters) or subsidize transit passes for residents to encourage usage.

Active Transportation and Complete Streets: In tandem with transit, Bellingham should continue improving its bicycle and pedestrian networks. The bike lane system can be expanded and rerouted off of main arterials to make cycling safer for everyone— pedestrians, cyclists and drivers. Greenways and trail connections (like the Bay to Baker Trail proposal) can link neighborhoods with non-motorized routes. Prioritizing sidewalk infill projects in underserved areas (many older county roads in the UGA lack sidewalks) will promote walking and transit access, benefiting those who can’t afford cars. Complete Streets design – which Bellingham has embraced – ensures new road projects include facilities for all modes. By 2045, the aim would be a city where a majority of trips under 3 miles can be done without a car. This reduces greenhouse emissions and household transportation costs (the latter a major burden for lower-income families). It also has public health benefits and can spur transit-oriented commercial development, adding local jobs.

3. Infrastructure and Climate Adaptation

Roads, Water and Sewer: There are significant infrastructure gaps within Bellingham that are preventing housing development. In one example, 111 acres of buildable land remains vacant, though the builder has been trying to develop the property for more than two decades years. The land needs significant regional infrastructure before the city will consider reviewing a plan for a new housing development, but the infrastructure need extends well beyond the property making it too expensive for the land owner to shoulder alone without a public-private partnership. A collaborative approach to infrastructure investment between the city, private investors and nonprofits can fund the necessary development of roads, sewer extensions and water towers that are needed to build the housing to accommodate future population growth.

Stormwater Management with Nature-Based Solutions: As rainfall intensity increases, managing runoff is critical to prevent pollution and flooding. Bellingham should expand the use of green infrastructure such as rain gardens, bioswales, permeable pavements, and wetland retention ponds. New developments can be required to implement Low Impact Development (LID) techniques – for example, bioswales along parking lots or vegetated swales in subdivisions. Street retrofits can incorporate curbside planters that soak up water (similar to Portland’s extensive green street program). The city already has strong stormwater regulations due to the Lake Whatcom TMDL (pollution limit) – these can be continually updated with best practices. Utilizing nature-based approaches not only handles water more sustainably but also provides co-benefits: groundwater recharge, urban greenery, and habitat pockets. For instance, bioswales can be planted with native pollinator-friendly vegetation, supporting biodiversity even in downtown streets. Bellingham could set a target to manage a large percentage of its stormwater through decentralized green systems by 2045, reducing the load on piped infrastructure and improving water quality in creeks and the bay.

Urban Forest and Green Space Preservation: Maintaining the 40% tree canopy will require intentional effort as infill progresses. Bellingham is currently finalizing an Urban Forestry Management Plan to balance development with tree protection​. Policies may include strengthening tree retention requirements on private lots, planting new street trees in denser areas, and ensuring adequate soil volume for trees in urbanized neighborhoods. The concept of “tree equity” should guide planting – focusing greening efforts in areas where lower-income residents have less canopy cover and higher heat exposure​. The city can also continue acquiring and expanding parks and greenways. Each urban village plan, for example, could include mini-parks or plazas so that higher-density living is offset by accessible open space. Green roofs and living walls on buildings can supplement ground-level greenery. By integrating green infrastructure, Bellingham will be more resilient to heat waves, better at sequestering carbon, and overall, more attractive. Importantly, access to nature will remain a defining feature for all residents, supporting mental health and recreation.

Coastal Resilience Measures: For neighborhoods along Bellingham Bay and the Nooksack delta, proactive adaptation is needed for sea level rise and coastal flooding. Over the next 30 years sea level is predicted to rise 4-6 inches and by 2100 between 1.5 and 1.9 feet. The Port of Bellingham’s Climate Action Strategy already includes a coastal vulnerability assessment​. The city should collaborate with the Port and County on implementing solutions like restored salt marshes and living shorelines. Low-lying infrastructure (sewer lift stations, roads in the floodplain) may need elevation or flood-proofing. By acting early, Bellingham can avoid costly damages and protect communities like Marietta and Birchwood that are near sea level. Ensuring that working-class communities are engaged in adaptation planning is key – for instance, a resilience plan might include support for homeowners of limited means to elevate or retrofit their homes.

Energy-Efficient Buildings: Reducing energy use and emissions from buildings intersects with both climate goals and housing affordability (through lower utility bills). Bellingham can adopt stricter energy codes or incentives for new construction to be net-zero ready or even net-positive (producing more energy than consumed). Freiburg’s example shows that affordable housing can be built to passive house standards with the right expertise. Bellingham could pilot a net-zero affordable apartment building using local grant funds or a private-public partnership, to set the stage for broader adoption. For existing homes, especially the older housing stock that many low-income families live in, weatherization and electrification programs are vital. Expanding programs that offer free or subsidized insulation, heat pump installation, and solar panels for low-income households will reduce greenhouse gases and cushion those households from volatile energy costs. Washington State’s clean energy fund and federal funds from the Inflation Reduction Act can be tapped to support these upgrades at scale. In addition, encouraging deconstruction and reuse of materials when older buildings are replaced (instead of demolition waste) aligns with climate-friendly development and can create jobs in salvaging and retrofitting – a niche that local entrepreneurs could fill.

4. Affordable Housing and Community Support Programs

Even if with ample housing production, specific measures are needed to ensure housing is affordable for working-class and vulnerable residents. Bellingham has been a leader in some respects, dedicating local funding and policies to this cause, which can be bolstered in the coming years:

Local Affordable Housing Funding: The City of Bellingham currently directs about $10 million per year into local housing programs, funded by tools like an affordable housing sales tax and a voter-approved Housing Levy​. Approximately $7 million annually is used to build or preserve affordable housing, leveraged with nonprofit partners to achieve an 8:1 match and resulting in over 1,700 income-restricted units created or preserved to date​. Continuing and potentially increasing these local investments will be crucial. Renewing the Housing Levy (or raising it) when it expires, seeking county or state matching funds, and utilizing new state funding streams (e.g. WA’s housing trust fund) can all help maintain a pipeline of below-market housing. These funds should prioritize projects for those most in need – e.g. rentals for <50% AMI households, supportive housing for the homeless, and homeownership opportunities via community land trusts.

Preservation of Existing Affordable Housing: Often the “greenest” and most affordable home is an existing one that is preserved. Bellingham has innovative programs to stabilize current low-income homeowners – for example, since 1977 the city’s Home Rehabilitation Program has helped over 1,400 families make essential repairs (roof, plumbing, etc.) via low-interest loans​. This prevents displacement and blight. Likewise, the city adopted a Manufactured Home Park overlay zone in 2022 to protect ten mobile home parks (850 homes) from redevelopment​, recognizing these parks provide unsubsidized affordable housing for many seniors and low-income people. This kind of zoning protection can be maintained and possibly extended; if any redevelopment is proposed, it should require one-for-one replacement of affordable units or consent of residents. The city also partners with the Opportunity Council to assist with emergency repairs in shelters and low-income apartments​. Going forward, Bellingham might explore acquiring “naturally occurring affordable” apartments (older buildings with modest rents) and preserve them as affordable. Some cities use housing levy funds or bond financing to purchase such buildings and keep rents stable.

Community Land Trusts (CLTs) and Co-operative Housing: Support for models like the Kulshan Community Land Trust – which Bellingham already partners with for down payment assistance​– can be expanded. CLTs ensure permanent affordability by holding land in trust and selling homes at affordable prices to income-qualified buyers, with resale restrictions. This helps working-class families build equity while keeping the home affordable for the next buyer. Bellingham can dedicate more surplus land or funding to CLT development. Cooperative housing (where residents collectively own the building and operate it at cost) is another avenue to provide below-market housing. The city could facilitate co-op formation by offering technical assistance or piloting a limited-equity co-op in a new development. These models align with sustainability as well, since they encourage long-term stewardship of housing and often incorporate communal resources (shared gardens, etc.).

Economic Opportunity and Jobs-Housing Balance: To truly support working-class residents, housing policy should connect with economic development. This means continuing to stimulate job creation in family-wage sectors (manufacturing, clean energy, trades) within Bellingham, so residents have access to good jobs without long commutes. The city’s support for the maritime industry and tech startups, for example, can yield more employment. Workforce training programs, possibly in partnership with Bellingham Technical College, can prepare local residents for careers in construction, green building retrofits, and renewable energy – fields that will grow as the city invests in green infrastructure and housing. One idea is a “green jobs corps” that hires and trains local youth or under-employed adults to work on projects like home weatherization, tree planting, park restoration, and solar installation. This addresses climate goals and provides ladders of opportunity. Additionally, encouraging mixed-use zoning that allows small-scale commercial or light manufacturing in proximity to housing (with appropriate safeguards) can spur micro-enterprises and reduce the need for commuting. An example might be live-work units for artisans or small food producers in certain zones.

Recommendations for Bellingham’s Resilient Future

Drawing together the analysis, Bellingham’s path to balancing growth with environmental stewardship will require a multipronged approach. Below are key recommendations, synthesized for clarity:

●      Embrace Compact Growth and Infill: Focus growth in the UGA with ample buildable land and within urban villages. Upzone strategically to allow more housing and missing middle housing types in existing neighborhoods and along transit corridors. Make better use of underutilized urban land (parking lots, Bellis Fair Mall, etc.) for new housing and mixed-use projects.

●      Protect Critical Environmental Areas: Rigorously protect Lake Whatcom’s watershed through land acquisition (aim for full build-out prevention in high-risk areas)​. Enforce stream and wetland buffers amid development. Fully implement the Urban Forestry Plan – require new development to account for tree planting or pay into a tree fund to maintain no net loss of canopy​. Enhance wildlife corridors (e.g., connect the Chuckanut Mountains to Lake Whatcom through greenway acquisitions) so species can thrive even as the city grows.

●      Strengthen Climate Adaptation Planning: Integrate climate projections into all planning decisions. Update the zoning code and building standards in flood-prone or landslide-prone areas to elevate structures above sea level and restrict new development in areas of high risk. Invest in green infrastructure citywide as a climate resilience backbone. Pursue funding (FEMA grants, state programs) for infrastructure upgrades like culvert replacements (to handle heavier stream flows).

●      Expand Affordable Housing Programs: Renew and increase the Housing Levy to build more low-income housing – consider a target of several hundred units added per year with public support. Leverage state and federal funds (from ARPA, infrastructure bills) to subsidize housing near transit for low-wage workers. Preserve existing affordable homes: extend the manufactured home park protections, help non-profit housing providers acquire aging apartments, and support low-income homeowners with repair/weatherization grants (preventing them from being priced out or having to sell). By keeping housing attainable, Bellingham ensures the people who work here can live here, which in turn reduces sprawl and fosters community stability.

●      Foster Sustainable Transportation: Work with WTA to create a frequent transit grid that reaches all major residential and job areas, making transit an attractive option. Fill sidewalk and bike network gaps, especially in lower-income areas to improve safe access. Consider moving bike lanes off main arterials for a safer commute. Look into long-term options like electric shuttle loops. Plan transportation and land use hand-in-hand to cut emissions and support those who can’t afford cars.

●      Engage the Community and Promote Equity: Throughout all planning efforts, continue to actively involve residents – especially underrepresented groups – in decision-making. Bellingham has seen success with participatory processes. Continue this tradition by ensuring diverse voices guide the comprehensive plan update. Use outreach methods that reach renters, youth, and marginalized communities (e.g., workshops in multiple languages, collaboration with local NGOs). Incorporate equity impact assessments for major policies to ensure no group is unfairly burdened or left behind. A resilient Bellingham is one where all residents share the benefits of growth – access to housing, a healthy environment, and economic opportunity.

Looking Forward

 Over the next 20 years, Bellingham can demonstrate that a city does not have to choose between growth and the environment. By learning from Freiburg and Portland’s lessons and building on its own innovative programs, Bellingham can craft a development model that is climate-resilient, biodiverse, and inclusive. The data on projected population and housing needs make clear that proactive steps are needed now: accommodating ~24,000 new residents and thousands of new homes will not happen sustainably by accident. The tools are available – thoughtful zoning, transit-oriented design, green infrastructure, and robust affordable housing initiatives – to guide this growth in a way that enhances rather than detracts from Bellingham’s character.

Bellingham in 2045 could be a city of vibrant urban villages where people of all incomes live near their work and daily needs; a city with clean drinking water and abundant wildlife; crisscrossed by safe transit and bike routes, where commuters leave smaller carbon footprints; and a city of strong, diverse communities that have weathered climate challenges through local resilience and solidarity. Achieving this vision will require sustained political will, regional cooperation, and community engagement. Fortunately, Bellingham has a head start – its residents value sustainability and its leaders have already initiated key policies. By scaling up these efforts and staying committed to balancing human and ecological needs, Bellingham can serve as a model for small cities worldwide facing the 21st-century growth puzzle. The next 20 years will be decisive in shaping a future that is equitable, green, and resilient.

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