After years of increasing homelessness, a shortage of affordable housing, and an intensely competitive rental market, the City of Bellingham officially declared a housing crisis in 2023. While lingering effects of the 2008 Great Recession and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to the housing shortage, Bellingham’s affordability crisis cannot be blamed on external factors alone. The City exacerbated the impacts of these global events by repeatedly making decisions to reduce estimated population projections during past comprehensive planning cycles to avoid infrastructure investment and prevent necessary urban growth area reconfiguration to increase the supply of buildable land within the City to accommodate new growth.
As the 2045 comprehensive plan process unfolds, Housing for Bellingham is intently following the process and speaking out against decisions that may further exacerbate the housing affordability crisis over the next 20 years—potentially resulting in increased sprawl, further widening the wealth gap, slowing the economy, and damaging our environment. To not only address the housing crisis but also lay the foundation for a thriving community, we believe it is essential to incorporate built-in contingencies by planning beyond the medium population growth projections for the next 20 years.
2045 Population Estimates
Washington State’s Growth Management Act (GMA) requires fast-growing counties like Whatcom County to create a 20-year comprehensive plan every 10 years. Whatcom County and its cities are currently evaluating the 2045 population projections provided by Washington’s Office of Financial Management (OFM) and considering how planning for these estimates will shape the future of our County. The County is determining which population projection to adopt for countywide planning, while individual cities are assessing what share of that total population they can accommodate.
OFM provides population projections that counties use for planning infrastructure, housing, and employment needs. These projections include high, medium, and low estimates. Whatcom County hired Leland Consulting Group to refine these projections by analyzing historical data, birth and death rates, and migration trends. Leland’s technical analysis, Population and Employment: Growth Projections and Preliminary Allocations, was completed in May 2024. The County is using the revised projections in an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), which will explore the following growth alternatives and assess how population increases will affect housing, transportation, and the environment over the next 20 years.
The alternatives include:
● No Action Alternative: 275,450 total estimated county population by 2045
● Alternative 1, OFM Medium: estimates Whatcom County will have an approximate population of 292,714 by 2045
● Alternative 2, County & City Proposals (also referred to as the Medium-High projection): estimates Whatcom County will have an approximate population of 315,133 by 2045
● Alternative 3, Leland’s Adjusted High population projection: estimates Whatcom County will have an approximate population of 322,000 by 2045
Whatcom County and its cities are working to determine which population projection to adopt in a non-binding, multi-jurisdictional resolution ahead of the EIS release. Passing a multi-jurisdiction resolution is not mandatory under the GMA, but the process improves communication and coordination between cities, enabling them to share costs and resources and avoid duplicating efforts. As its name suggests, this multi-jurisdictional resolution would be non-binding, and the population projection adopted therein can be changed. While some have urged the County Council to refrain from adopting a population projection prior to completion of the EIS, the cities contend that, to continue their planning processes and meet their deadlines to apply for state and federal grant funding, using tentative population and employment numbers to create a non-binding multi-jurisdiction resolution is necessary.
Halting planning efforts until EIS data becomes available, as some have urged, will likely disrupt the decision-making cycle and funding prospects for needed infrastructure. In a memo dated November 12, 2024, Whatcom Environmental Council (WEC) dismissed planners concerns regarding meeting deadlines for state and federal grant funding, claiming that “the only reason to make a selection at this early stage is to put a thumb on the scale in favor of the selected alternative.” On the contrary, adopting Alternative 2 by nonbinding multi-jurisdictional resolution is a step toward making an informed decision grounded in extensive planning review and consideration by elected officials. This approach ensures that cities can meet critical deadlines and position themselves to secure essential state and federal grant funding, which is necessary to support infrastructure and community development projects.
Agreeing on a population projection has historically been rife with tension, and this planning cycle has been no different. However, because the multi-jurisdictional resolution is non-binding, choosing a population estimate should not be dependent on the EIS. Rather, the population estimate should be adopted based on realistic recommendations from policy makers and city planning staff and then adjusted based on EIS analysis. This will allow the cities to continue with their planning efforts and apply for grant funding rather than stalling the planning process unnecessarily.
Considering the Alternatives
Calls to halt the planning process are accompanied by opposition to the County’s adoption of Alternative 2, which some argue incorporates more population growth than the most likely scenario for the County. The argument is that planning for too much growth could lead to negative environmental impacts, including urban sprawl, resource depletion, and increased transportation emissions that exacerbate climate change. However, this position overlooks the risks associated with underplanning. Failing to adequately plan for future demand will, as we have seen, result in sprawl, unaffordable housing, and strain on infrastructure. Ultimately, planning for the medium projection leaves no margin for error for the cities, and any delays in infrastructure or housing development will inevitably push growth into rural, unincorporated areas of the County, which have already seen 18.9% growth between 2013 and 2023. In contrast, adopting a more proactive strategy, as proposed by Alternative 2, allows cities to actively manage and direct growth in a sustainable and cost-effective manner.
Population projections play a critical role in ensuring that the County and its cities are adequately prepared for future growth while minimizing risks. Some argue the OFM medium population estimate has historically been the most likely scenario and, therefore, the cities and the County should plan for Alternative 1. Yet, city elected officials and staff that looked into it (including Bellingham), have proposed Alternative 2 (Medium-High) for their draft Comprehensive Plans. While the OFM Medium projection has historically been accurate at the countywide level, planning solely for this scenario requires each city to absorb its precise allocation of growth to meet the countywide projection, leaving no margin for error and no capacity to adapt to unforeseen challenges or shifts in growth patterns. This means that if unforeseen circumstances arise—such as flooding, unexpected migration, or delays in infill development occur in even one urban growth area—the rural county would likely absorb any overflow growth that cannot be accommodated. Planning for the medium-high projection provides cities with a buffer to address these uncertainties without fully adopting the high-growth projection. Alternative 2 strikes a more effective balance between the costly risks of underplanning and overplanning, providing Whatcom County and its cities with a more forgiving and realistic framework to accommodate future growth.
Both overplanning and underplanning carry risks that must be carefully weighed in population growth strategies. Planning for too much growth can lead to adverse environmental impacts and put the County and its cities at risk of overspending on infrastructure and public services that may not be fully utilized as soon as they need to be. Conversely, underplanning for population growth poses more serious risks, particularly in a region already grappling with a severe housing shortage. Failing to plan for sufficient growth could drastically exacerbate Bellingham's housing crisis and contribute to the rising rate of homelessness in Whatcom County. Rising housing costs driven by scarcity will push Bellingham’s workforce to seek more affordable housing in rural areas, exacerbating traffic congestion, increasing emissions, straining transportation infrastructure, fueling rural and urban sprawl and the growth of bedroom communities. By planning for more than the OFM Medium projection, staff and policymakers can better adapt to unforeseen changes in the market conditions and provide the necessary infrastructure and resources to timely accommodate population increases effectively.
The City of Bellingham has been planning for the OFM Medium population projection for decades, yet it continues to experience many symptoms of underplanning, including increased traffic congestion, housing unaffordability, and rising rates of homelessness, all contributing to growing economic inequality. In 2002, Bellingham adopted a population projection of 113,055 by 2022 (which accounted for 54% of all growth projected to occur in Whatcom County from 2002-2022). However, on 3 occasions, the City chose to significantly reduce its population projection which allowed it to delay the construction of roads, sewer connections, and water tanks. Proponents advocated for monitoring the housing market and adjusting infrastructure spending in response to growth, but this approach has not been effectively implemented. The City's longstanding reliance on the OFM Medium population projection has led to a failure to make necessary infrastructure investments, which has exacerbated Bellingham's housing shortage, rising homelessness, and sprawl into rural, unincorporated areas, while also putting additional strain on smaller cities in Whatcom County. With these results, how can we justify continuing with status quo planning?
Bellingham’s Housing Crisis
The housing shortage in Bellingham has driven home prices and rents to unaffordable, unsustainable levels. According to a report by The Mujlat Group published in the Bellingham Herald on January 9, 2025, Bellingham’s average home sale price in 2024 was $756,000.00 — $130,000 more than the countywide median home sale price. To put this in perspective, a 20% downpayment on a home in Bellingham in 2024 would be around $151,200.00. Yet according to the U.S. Census Bureau, Bellingham’s median household income is $54,867.00. The lack of affordable homes has contributed to a highly competitive rental market. The median cost of rent for all bedrooms was $1,950.00 per month in December 2024, and the overall vacancy rate remained well below the level considered healthy. A healthy vacancy rate— 5-7% for rentals and around 2% for homeowners— is crucial for stabilizing housing costs, but Bellingham’s vacancy rates are significantly lower: approximately 3% for rentals, 1% for homeowners, and a composite rate of 2.5%. High housing costs and low vacancy rates exacerbate the strain on the housing market, contributing to economic and social instability for many Bellingham residents, especially cost-burdened and/or low-income renters who are most vulnerable to rent increases.
To better understand the scope of the affordability crisis in Bellingham, let's take a closer look at the numbers. The University of Washington’s Center for Real Estate Research uses two Housing Affordability Indexes (HAI) to assess whether a household has enough income to afford housing. Scores above 100 mean the household can comfortably afford housing; while scores below 100 indicate insufficient income. Bellingham’s affordability has deteriorated considerably in recent years, with the city’s median buyer HAI dropping from 68 in Q1 2021 to 42 by Q3 2024. Whatcom County’s score fell from 87 to 54 in the same period. Bellingham’s median buyer HAI is among the very lowest in the state. This decline in affordability is further highlighted by Bellingham’s 2023-2027 Consolidated Plan Overview, which reveals that 56% of the city’s renters are cost burdened, spending more than 30% of their income on housing, and 22% are severely cost burdened, spending more than 50% on housing. Together, these trends underscore the severity of the affordability crisis in Bellingham.
Skyrocketing housing costs in Bellingham have played a significant role in the increasing rates of homelessness in both the city and Whatcom County, as housing affordability and homelessness are inextricably linked. Between 2022 and 2023, Whatcom County saw a staggering 27% increase in the number of unhoused individuals, according to a Point-In-Time Count reported in the County’s Annual Report on Homelessness. However, these surveys, while valuable, capture only a partial picture of need, as they are voluntary, conducted on a single night in January, and only count people who meet the federal definition of homelessness. During a May 8, 2023 meeting of Bellingham City Council’s Community and Economic Development Committee, city staff outlined the desperate need for housing assistance. They reported that 1 in 4 families qualified to receive assistance via housing vouchers. Although the Bellingham and Whatcom County Housing Authority receives $22 million in federal funding annually, Housing Authority staff have stated that approximately $90 million per year is needed to adequately assist all households in need. The strains on the housing market caused by insufficient planning for growth could exacerbate these challenges, making it even more difficult to address the rising rates of homelessness and housing insecurity. Without a comprehensive and proactive approach to expanding housing capacity, the gap between demand and available resources will likely continue to widen, further exacerbating the affordability crisis and leaving more families without the support they desperately need.
Whatcom County is a special place to call home, and the demand for housing here will undoubtedly continue to reflect its desirability. Whatcom County is defined by a stunning natural landscape, with the rugged North Cascades towering over the Salish Sea, but the County’s appeal extends far beyond its breathtaking beauty. The County is uniquely positioned in proximity to two global hubs: Vancouver B.C. and Seattle, WA, offering a balance between small town living and access to urban centers. In today’s post-COVID world, where remote work has become more common, people are increasingly drawn to our County and its lifestyle. An influx of new residents from higher-cost metropolitan areas could further intensify competition in our County’s strained housing market.
Planning to Thrive, Not Just to Survive
Planning for growth over a 20-year period is undoubtedly challenging due to the inherent uncertainty of the future and the many factors that must be considered in creating a sustainable growth plan. However, given the current record rates of homelessness, volatile rental market, and skyrocketing home prices, it is essential that we plan accordingly for the housing, infrastructure, and employment opportunities that our cities will require in the coming years.
For decades, Whatcom County has planned based on the OFM Medium population projection, but this approach has proven insufficient in addressing the growing housing needs of our county. Repeating the planning mistakes that have contributed to our current challenges will only perpetuate the issues we face today. As Whatcom County Executive, Satpal Siduh states in an August 2, 2024 Bellingham City Council Special Meeting:
"Keeping with [the] status quo is not a successful plan for our County. It failed to produce any special or extraordinary results in either housing or Economic Development. We should not do what we have been doing for the last 20 - 30 years... make it harder to build and people won't come. We've seen that. People are coming. We must make our policies [to] facilitate all kinds of housing and all kinds of economic development... We have tied ourselves in knots with our own rules and regulations -- because 'that's how it was done.'"
To create the thriving, sustainable community that Whatcom County residents deserve, policymakers must think beyond the minimum and adopt a more forward-thinking approach that anticipates growth, allows room for error in growth estimates, and ensures our housing, infrastructure, and employment opportunities are ready to meet future demands. By adopting the Alternative 2 estimate and focusing growth in Bellingham and its UGAs, we can prevent sprawl, protect the environment, and meet future housing and service needs while addressing current affordability and employment challenges. The way to change the future is to avoid repeating the mistakes we’ve made in the past. Simply put, planning for the status quo is not good enough when our future is at stake.
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